Oil and War: Oil Peak vs. Oil Panic
Thursday October 19, 2006
Professor Amos Nur
Stanford University Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecture
Abstract
Worldwide, per-capita oil consumption is closely correlated with standard of living. In developing nations like China and India, increasing prosperity therefore requires increased per-capita oil consumption. However, oil is a finite resource whose production globally is about to begin to decline irreversibly. This is a source of increasing panic for consumers. Consequently the growing demand for oil is leading to conflicts between major producers and major consumers of which the Gulf war, the 9/11 attacks, and the war in Iraq are just the most recent 3 skirmishes. These skirmishes pale in comparison with the looming panic that could lead to a global conflict between major consumers (especially the US and China) over dwindling oil reserves in the future.